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A conservative five-year outlook showing the path from launch to profitability — driven by subscription revenue, commission splits, and compounding network effects.
Conservative Estimates
These projections assume modest market penetration (1–3% of licensed agents) and conservative conversion rates. The upside case — capturing 5–10% of the $1.37B agent commission pool — is significantly higher.
Five-Year Overview
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered Agents | 500 | 2,000 | 5,000 | 8,000 | 10,000+ |
| Pro Conversion Rate | 10% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Paying Agents (Pro+Enterprise) | 50 | 500 | 1,500 | 2,800 | 3,500+ |
| Other Roles (Scouts, Reps, Introducers) | 200 | 1,000 | 3,000 | 6,000 | 10,000+ |
| Subscription Revenue | ~€60K | ~€500K | ~€2M | ~€4M | €5–10M |
| Commission Revenue | ~€20K | €250–500K | €1–2M | €2–4M | €3–6M |
| Total Revenue | ~€80K | ~€750K–1M | ~€3–4M | ~€6–8M | €8–16M |
| Status | Pre-revenue / validation | Early traction | Approaching breakeven | Profitable | Scaling |
Year-by-Year Breakdown
Year 1 — Validate & Launch
- Target: 500 registered agents, 200 other role users
- Focus: Product-market fit, first club pilots, FIFA exam partnership
- Revenue: ~€80K (mostly from early Pro subscribers and small commission flows)
- Milestones: Platform launch, first 50 paying users, first deal processed through Clearing House integration, 3–5 club pilots initiated
- Key cost: Engineering team, cloud infrastructure, initial marketing
Year 2 — Early Traction
- Target: 2,000 agents, 1,000 other roles
- Focus: Scaling agent acquisition, proving commission model, expanding to 2–3 European markets
- Revenue: ~€500K subscriptions + €250–500K commissions = ~€750K–1M total
- Milestones: 500 paying users, first Enterprise client, expansion to South America scouting network, seed/Series A fundraise
Year 3 — Approaching Breakeven
- Target: 5,000 agents, 3,000 other roles
- Focus: Network effects kicking in, club adoption growing, regional expansion (Africa, South America)
- Revenue: €3–4M total
- Milestones: Breakeven in sight, 20+ club partnerships, scouting network across 3 continents, community features driving retention
Year 4 — Profitable
- Target: 8,000 agents, 6,000 other roles
- Focus: Profitability, Middle East and North American expansion, premium add-ons (analytics packages, education)
- Revenue: €6–8M total
- Milestones: Cash flow positive, 50+ club partnerships, industry conference launch, brand recognition as the default agent platform
Year 5 — Scaling
- Target: 10,000+ agents, 10,000+ other roles
- Focus: Global coverage, Asia-Pacific expansion, white-label enterprise offerings, potential acquisition opportunities
- Revenue: €8–16M total
- Milestones: Market leader position, presence in 50+ countries, 100+ club partnerships, Series B or profitability-funded growth
The Upside Case
Capturing just 1% of the $1.37B+ agent commission pool equals ~$13.7M in commission revenue alone. Combined with subscriptions from 10,000+ users across all roles, the ceiling is significantly higher than our base projections.
Revenue Mix Evolution
| Revenue Stream | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscriptions | 75% | 55% | 45% |
| Commission Splits | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Add-ons & Education | 5% | 10% | 15% |
Over time, commission revenue grows as a share of total revenue — reflecting increasing deal volume through the platform and the compounding effect of network growth.
Breakeven Analysis
With estimated annual operating costs of €2–3M (engineering, operations, marketing, infrastructure), breakeven is projected at Year 3–4. Key assumptions:
- ~1,500 paying agent subscribers at an average of €90/month
- ~500 paying users across other roles at an average of €60/month
- Commission revenue from deals processed through the platform
- Operating leverage: marginal cost per new user is low once the platform is built